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Housing, Jobs, and Economic Resilience: Canada’s Path Forward

27 Feb 2025

Ray Sullivan, Executive Director

 

Faced with economic threats and challenges to our sovereignty from the White House, Canadians are scrambling for ways to create economic resiliency and protection against the coming instability.

Let’s face facts – our economy lacked resiliency before Trump 2.0, and his return to power is only making a bad situation worse.

For years, we have seen a housing crisis that drags down our economy. Persistent headlines about lagging productivity and per capita GDP are not unrelated. Housing costs have driven inflation, and the lack of affordable housing remains a serious economic issue.

Low- and modest-income households have felt the pressure for years. The pandemic and the resulting economic shock exposed and deepened cracks in an already fragile system. Those cracks have become full breaks.

If you live payday to payday, you likely felt the pressure in your housing costs first. When mortgage rates and rents surged beyond income levels, families struggled. Food inflation became intolerable when rents ate up available income. More families now rely on food banks, and the most economically vulnerable have lost their homes – many forced to couch-surf or live in tents in public parks.

Unfortunately, we’re facing an affordable housing supply shortage while private market housing starts are declining. The boom-bust cycle of residential construction, with its sensitivity to inflation and material costs, has proven unreliable in ensuring everyone has access to an affordable home.

Trump didn’t create these issues, but his government will make them worse.

Even if we don’t see tariffs, the mere threat of them will wreak havoc on the Canadian economy. Businesses will hesitate to invest, factories won’t expand, and workers will lose jobs. Undocumented migrants will flee the United States, many coming to Canada, and they will struggle to find jobs and homes. The American economy- so deeply intertwined with ours – will stall, amplifying inflation and job losses.

We have two challenges to tackle at home, and their roots pre-date Trump: an affordable housing shortage and low productivity. Some of the solutions overlap, and some have been on the table for a while, but now it’s time to double down.

First, we must protect ourselves from the shock of rapid economic realignment. We’ve done it before – during the pandemic, when the global economy shut down. But this time, there is no return to “normal.” Canada must permanently stop acting as a branch plant of the U.S. economy.

While we adjust, we need to protect against the worst economic shocks. Keeping people employed and ensuring they don’t fall into deep financial hardship must be priorities.

One immediate solution: build more housing. If the private market won’t, then let’s put people to work constructing affordable community housing. The National Indigenous Collaborative Housing Inc. (NICHI) has shovel-ready projects worth hundreds of millions of dollars waiting only for government investment. In its first year alone, NICHI successfully delivered $280 million to Indigenous-led community housing providers and together created nearly 3,800 homes for Indigenous households. Every dollar invested in Indigenous housing returns $7.40 in social and economic benefits. It’s an investment that saves lives and strengthens our economy.

Beyond NICHI, there are shovel-ready supportive and non-market community housing developments across the country that need access to capital. Even faster, we can invest in repairing aging community housing units, nearly 20% of which are in “poor” condition. These repairs would put billions of dollars into the economy, keep people housed, and extend the life of our affordable housing stock.

Protecting low- and modest-income households from the immediate economic shock must also be a priority. Job losses and rising rents could push many families to the brink. Losing a rent-controlled home today could mean an increase of hundreds of dollars in housing costs, if a new home can even be found. We need a robust emergency rent bank and a national housing benefit program to prevent homelessness.

We must also stabilize rents and protect tenants by supporting non-profits and co-ops to acquire existing private rental housing. A federal acquisitions fund could help preserve affordability and protect tenants from displacement.

Beyond the immediate crisis, we must build long-term economic resilience. One critical strategy: double the supply of community housing. Within that, we must quadruple the supply of for-Indigenous, by-Indigenous community housing. Increasing the share of community housing by just 2% could boost economic productivity by over 5%, paying for itself through increased GDP within two years. More importantly, reaching the OECD average of 8% community housing would create a stronger housing safety net, stabilize households, and improve economic opportunity.

Scaling up community housing requires a more efficient, cost-effective approach to construction. Investing in factory-based housing production can lower costs, improve quality, and increase energy efficiency. The private construction industry hesitates to make large capital investments in this area due to market volatility. But community housing development, which is less susceptible to market swings, can fill that gap. A well-supported factory-based production model can create steady, year-round jobs in safer conditions while meeting Canada’s urgent housing needs.

The path forward is clear: we need bold, decisive action to build a stronger, more resilient economy. Investing in community housing isn’t just about shelter – it’s about economic stability, job creation, and ensuring all Canadians have a fair shot at prosperity.

The time to act is now. Let’s get to work.