In November 2023, CHRA, Housing Partnership Canada, and our sector partners released our economic study, The Impact of Community Housing on Productivity. This study, authored by Deloitte, finds a causal connection between the proportion of community housing within the overall housing stock and gains in economic productivity.

In the fourth piece in our series of blog posts examining the study, we’re looking at the key takeaways from the provincial data on Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador. Read on to learn more.

 

Quebec

Quebec has long been recognized for its affordable housing. However, recent data indicates that prices have risen rapidly in the province.

Demand challenges

• A study conducted by CMHC revealed that from 2015 to 2020, demand in Quebec’s three largest metropolitan areas grew five to thirteen times faster than the housing stock.
• The gap between supply and demand has led to increased pressure on prices.

Supply challenges

• Construction levels have not kept up with the pace of increasing demand.
• According to the Société d'Habitation du Québec, there are currently no new low-rental housing projects being built.

Deloitte finds that bringing the percentage of Quebec’s community housing units in line with the OECD average by 2030 would contribute between $13.1 to $26.1 billion to the province’s GDP.

 

New Brunswick

New Brunswick’s primary rental market has experienced an increase in price and decrease in vacancy rates in recent years.

Demand challenges

• From 2016 to 2021, New Brunswick’s population grew at its fastest pace since the early 1970s, largely due to an increase in international and interprovincial migration.
• In 2020, investors owned 29% of residential properties in New Brunswick. Many investors own vacant land that could be developed.

Supply challenges

• Labour shortages and cost pressures have limited the ability to increase supply.
• New Brunswick tenant rights advocates say housing conditions in community housing in the province are difficult to tolerate due to the fact that the community housing stock is old and in poor condition.

Deloitte finds that bringing the percentage of New Brunswick’s community housing units in line with the OECD average by 2030 would contribute between $0.6 to $1.3 billion to the province’s GDP.

 

Nova Scotia

The dollar value of community housing stock as a share of total housing stock in Nova Scotia has decreased since the 1980s and remains below the Canadian average.

Demand challenges

• Between 2016 and 2021, Nova Scotia experienced a 5% population growth rate largely due to an increase in immigration and interprovincial migration.
• In 2020, investors owned 31.5% of residential properties in Nova Scotia (the highest among provinces analyzed).

Supply challenges

• The average age of Nova Scotia’s public housing units is 42 years. In recent years, there have been small contributions to the community housing stock.
• In recent years, housing supply in Nova Scotia has not been able to match the increase in demand.

Deloitte finds that bringing the percentage of Nova Scotia’s community housing units in line with the OECD average by 2030 would contribute between $0.5 to $1.3 billion to the province’s GDP.

 

Prince Edward Island

Prince Edward Island’s primary rental market has experienced an increase in price and decrease in vacancy rates in recent years.

Demand challenges

• In recent years, population has grown rapidly in Prince Edward Island, mostly due to immigration and interprovincial migration.
• Between July 2022 and 2023, Prince Edward Island experienced a growth rate of 3.9%, far higher than the national rate of 2.9%.

Supply challenges

• A shortage of workers and high construction costs have made it difficult for the market to meet the increase in demand.
• Recently, new housing starts in the rental market have been largely targeted towards high-end units, while gentrification through renovations is also occurring.

Deloitte finds that bringing the percentage of PEI’s community housing units in line with the OECD average by 2030 would contribute between $0.2 to $0.4 billion to the province’s GDP.

 

Newfoundland and Labrador

Housing completions in Newfoundland and Labrador have trended downwards since 2013.

Demand challenges

• A decrease in the vacancy rate in St. John’s adds additional pressure to the mismatch between the demand and supply for specific housing types; there is a greater demand for smaller units but over half of the supply is concentrated in two-to-three-bedroom units.

Supply challenges

• 52% of rental units in the province are owned by real estate investment trusts (REITs) and the rental stock is becoming increasingly financialized.
• Due to lack of funds from the province, there has been little investment in new community housing units and maintenance since the early 1990s.

Deloitte finds that bringing the percentage of Newfoundland and Labrador’s community housing units in line with the OECD average by 2030 would contribute between $1 to $1.9 billion to the province’s GDP.

 

Stay tuned to the blog to learn about more regional data from the report.

Check out The Impact of Community Housing on Productivity.